Truth and Hammer

Author: Truth & Hammer

  • Jennifer Aniston Courteney Cox Mexico Bikini Pictures 2019 | POPSUGAR Celebrity

    Jennifer Aniston Courteney Cox Mexico Bikini Pictures 2019 | POPSUGAR Celebrity

    Courteney Cox rang in her 55th birthday on June 15, and celebrated the milestone south of the border this week with some celebrity pals including BFF Jennifer Aniston. On Wednesday, the former Friends star was spotted soaking up the sun in a black bikini on the beach in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. She was joined by actresses Mary McCormack, Kristin Hahn, and Amanda Anka for the beach day, while Jen opted to hang by the pool at their villa instead. The Murder Mystery star — whose Netflix film recently broke a streaming record — did some sunbathing in a mismatched bikini.

    Before heading to Mexico, Courteney and Jen linked up with costar and friend Lisa Kudrow for a celebratory dinner in LA. Jennifer also recently stopped by The Ellen DeGeneres Show and talked about the possibility of an onscreen Friends reunion. “Listen, I would do it! The girls would do it and the boys would do it, I’m sure,” Jen said, adding that “anything can happen.”

    This content was originally published here.

  • Khloe Kardashian Says Tristan Threatened Suicide After Jordyn Woods Scandal | TMZ.com

    Khloe Kardashian Says Tristan Threatened Suicide After Jordyn Woods Scandal | TMZ.com

    Khloe Kardashian claims Tristan Thompson went overboard in showing remorse after he confirmed he cheated on her with Jordyn Woods … to the point where he threatened to kill himself.

    On Sunday’s episode of “Keeping Up with the Kardashians,” Khloe was telling Scott Disick about Tristan’s text messages to her after she confronted him about his fling with Woods.

    She says she got her questions answered, but then her baby daddy bombarded her with messages of regret and sorrow … including threatening suicide.

    Khloe told Disick … “He’s like, ‘I can’t stop thinking about you and what a mess I have caused.’ He’s doing this to get a reaction out of me. Oh, so I’m allowed to say ‘I’m going to kill myself’ at any time? That’s crazy.”

    Despite her disgust over Tristan’s behavior, Khloe apparently asked his friend to check on him to make sure he was okay … which Disick said “just goes to show that Khloe is an unbelievable person that loves so hard and so much.”

    Scott added … “Somehow she just keeps getting the short end of the stick, and it’s unfair and it’s hurtful and it’s really hard to me to sit and watch.”

    As you know … Jordan and Tristan’s cheating scandal broke in February, and Woods explained her side during a ‘Red Table Talk’ interview shortly afterward, claiming she wasn’t a homewrecker and there was just one kiss.

    At first, Khloe didn’t buy it and blamed her for breaking up her family, but later backed off and placed the majority of the blame on Thompson. Still, the incident caused a rift between Woods and the family … and she moved out of Kylie Jenner’s guest house. The 2 ex-besties have been on amicable terms since.

    This content was originally published here.

  • Barn Wood Coffee Table | Facil Furniture

    Barn Wood Coffee Table | Facil Furniture

    Barn Wood Coffee Table – Coffee tables are frequently the central emphasis of a living location as well as as a result have a incredible impact on a space’s design as well as ambiance. A sensible choice could produce a sensation of design as well as consistency whilst a inadequate choice could make a space appearance disordered as well as could bewilder the other furnishings, making the space look smaller as well as really feel less linked.

    The choices that you make concerning the size, shape, expense, material as well as design of the coffee table are hence vitally important to making your living-room a inviting space as well as setting the tone that you desire for your house. Next off, we will give you a few pictures of Barn Wood Coffee Table could be your ideas.

    Best Barn Wood Coffee Table Rustic Barnwood Coffee Table Coffee Lover And Enthusiasts

    Before starting your look for the best coffee table you must as a result work out exactly what it is that you want from it. Do you want it to be purely decorative- to produce a contemporary as well as elegant declaration, or are you a lot more curious about its features- do you intend to eat from it, place beverages on it, store magazines in it or utilize it as a screen cabinet?

    The Barn Wood Coffee Table can be beneficial inspiration for those who seek an image according specific category Coffee Table; you can find it in this site. Finally all pictures we have been displayed in this site will inspire you all.

    Pictures Gallery of Barn Wood Coffee Table

    This content was originally published here.

  • 30 Survival Skills Modern People Have Forgotten

    30 Survival Skills Modern People Have Forgotten

    Every generation is skilled at using the technology of its era. For example, people today are very good at driving cars, using smartphones, setting up home entertainment systems, and so forth. The problem is, if the end of the world as we know it ever happens, all those skills will be useless. The skills of our forefathers, on the other hand, will never be useless.

    Below, we’ll take a look at 30 survival skills from our past that have mostly been forgotten today. If you want to be able to survive in a world where relying on technology isn’t an option, these skills are certainly worth learning.

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    Note: For each skill, I included links to resources where you can learn how to develop that skill.

    1. Hand Washing Clothes

    These days, almost everyone owns a washer and dryer, and those who don’t are able to rely on a visit to the laundromat. Washing clothes without these conveniences, though, is a forgotten skill.

    Here is how to wash clothes by hand.

    2. Marksmanship

    Being able to accurately fire a gun is a skill that takes dedication and practice. At one time, it was an essential skill for survival. Today, though, few people know their way around a firearm.

    To get started, check out this guide to marksmanship.

    3. Navigating Without a GPS

    GPS’s have made navigation incredibly easy. But now that almost everyone has a powerful GPS in their pocket at all times, not many people know how to navigate without one.

    Here is how to navigate without GPS.

    4. Building a Fire

    Building a fire isn’t as easy as they make it look in the movies. Even with the right tools and ideal conditions, getting a fire started can sometimes be a challenge – and it’s a skill that few people today have acquired.

    Here is how to start a fire without matches.

    5. Hunting

    Prey animals have spent their entire lives avoiding predators, and they are very talented at it – which makes hunting a real challenge. In an era where fresh meat is always a trip to the supermarket away, hunting has become a forgotten skill.

    Here are the basics of hunting.

    6. Fishing

    Fishing may be a slightly easier skill to acquire than hunting, but it still requires a lot of learning and practice. Without the right gear and strategy, fish can be very difficult to catch.

    Here’s how to get started fishing, and here’s how to build a survival fishing kit.

    7. Purifying Water

    Constant access to clean, pure drinking water is a very modern convenience. In the past, though, knowing how to purify water was essential for survival.

    Here are some of the many ways to purify water.

    8. Preserving Food

    Thanks to our abundant supply of food as well as the invention of freezers and refrigerators, knowing how to preserve food is no longer a necessity. Without these modern-day conveniences, though, food preservation is essential for survival.

    Here is our beginner’s guide to emergency food storage.

    9. Tying Knots

    Everyone knows how to tie a knot in a string, but few people these days are able to tie a wide range of more-complicated knots.

    Here are five of the most useful knots.

    10. Raising Animals

    Outside of farmers, few people raise their own animals these days. However, animal husbandry still remains a very useful skill to know.

    Before you start raising animals, check out this list of the most popular animals to raise.

    11. Sewing

    Sewing used to be a skill that almost all women and even many men were taught at an early age. Today, though, few people know even the simplest sewing methods.

    Here is a brief introduction to sewing.

    12. Cooking from Scratch

    Putting together meals is now easier than it has ever been in the past, but this also means that most people have forgotten the skills necessary to cook at a tasty, healthy meal from scratch.

    Sadly, cooking from scratch is becoming a lost art.

    13. Predicting the Weather

    Today, figuring out what the weather is going to be like is as easy as turning on the television or pulling up an app on your phone. In the past, though, being able to predict the weather without these modern conveniences was essential for survival.

    Here are some old fashioned ways to predict the weather.

    14. Self Defense

    There was a time when it was common for fathers to teach their sons how to defend themselves. Today, self-defense is an important skill for men and women alike, but it is certainly less common for people to know.

    Here are some basic self-defense tips, but you’re better off taking a martial arts class of some kind.

    15. Butchering An Animal

    Even if you know how to raise your own animals for meat, you’ll also need to know how to butcher them. This is a more complicated process than many people realize and it’s a skill that must be acquired.

    Here are some tips for butchering at home.

    16. Using Cloth Diapers

    Before the days of disposable diapers, cloth diapers were all that was available. If the day comes when you can no longer purchase disposable diapers, learning how to use cloth diapers is going to be a necessity.

    Here’s a beginner’s guide to cloth diapers.

    17. Gardening

    Our abundance of food and the ease in which we are able to acquire it has eliminated the need for many skills, including gardening. As far as survival skills go, though, gardening is one of the most important.

    Here is our beginner’s guide to urban survival gardening.

    18. Keeping Yourself Entertained

    We have so many sources of entertainment and distraction these days that not many people are comfortable entertaining themselves without outside stimulation. In a world without electronics, knowing how to keep yourself entertained is very useful.

    To learn what it takes to keep yourself entertained without relying on technology, here are some ways to entertain yourself for free.

    19. Mechanic Work

    Though we are very reliant on mechanical things, not many people know how to work on them without the help of a professional. At one time, though, most everyone knew how to repair their own cars, motorcycles, and other mechanical products.

    Here’s how you can learn to fix cars.

    20. Bartering

    We aren’t used to having to barter for the things we buy today, but bartering used to be a way of life. It’s an important skill to know should we ever have to go back to purchasing things locally rather than buying them from a nationwide chain.

    Here is how to effectively barter, and here’s a list of barter items.

    21. First Aid

    Thanks to the convenience of modern medicine, few people have to worry about treating their own wounds. Nevertheless, first aid remains one of the most valuable forgotten skills that a person can learn.

    To learn the basics of first aid that may one day save your life, check out this Red Cross guide.

    22. Keeping Warm

    Not many people today have to worry about dying of hypothermia. But in the past, knowing how to keep warm – both inside and outside the home – was essential for survival.

    Here are some ways to keep warm when it’s freezing outside.

    23. Making Do With What You Have

    We live in an era of excess. If we ever return to a time when life isn’t so full of plenty and abundance, many people will struggle to adapt.

    Here are some tips on how to make the best of what you have.

    24. Making Cleaning Products

    People didn’t used to purchase pre-made cleaning products from the store. Instead, they made their own cleaning products with the raw materials that were available at the time.

    Here is a list of homemade cleaning products and how to make them.

    25. Home Maintenance

    In the past, when something broke down in the home, people would fix it themselves. Today, however, the skills of home maintenance are only known by a select few.

    Here is how to fix and prevent problems around the home.

    26. Building a Shelter

    Knowing how to build an effective shelter is key to wilderness survival. During the times where people would travel out into the woods without the convenience of a portable tent, knowing how to build a shelter was a vital skill.

    Here are some designs for wilderness shelters.

    27. Driving a Vehicle With a Manual Transmission

    Automatic transmissions haven’t always been around, and there was a time when everyone drove a manual. Today, the ability to drive a vehicle with a manual transmission is becoming increasingly less common.

    Here is how to drive a manual vehicle.

    28. Locating a Campsite

    Not every spot in the woods is suited for a campsite, and choosing the right spot to set up camp is a skill in and of itself.

    Here is how to choose a good spot for a campsite.

    29. Avoiding Panic

    We live very comfortable lives compared to the lives of our ancestors, which means that most people today are a lot more likely to panic when things take a turn for the worse.

    Here are some tips for staying calm during a disaster.

    30. Repurposing Items

    Throwing things away used to be unheard of. Instead, people would repurpose old items and find new ways to make use of them.

    Here are several dozen repurposing ideas to try out.

    Conclusion

    Even mastering just a few of these skills will put you leagues ahead of the average person, thus giving you a much greater chance of survival after a disaster. Pick one that interests you the most and start practicing. Once you get a little burnt out on it, move on to a different skill. Just be sure to get back to the first one later. With this list of survival skills, you’ll never be bored again!

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    This article first appeared on urbansurvivalsite.com See it here

    The post 30 Survival Skills Modern People Have Forgotten appeared first on Total Survival.

    This content was originally published here.

  • 12 Survival Skills to Learn and Master for SHTF

    12 Survival Skills to Learn and Master for SHTF

    When it comes to survival, having a stockpile of stuff is not enough.

    All too often people concentrate on the gear they need rather than the skills that will serve them well in a true SHTF situation.

    And yet, when it comes to preparedness skills, there is no hard and fast set of rules.  There are simply too many variables for a one size fits all list of things you must know and things you must learn if living conditions and economic realities become dire.  It is important to think about what is best for your unique situation.

    Your skills will mean you have value even if most everything is stripped away from you. Gaining skills during good or at least better times is the way to go because although you can learn during a long emergency or SHTF, it is best to have a few things you do well and that you learned under less stressful circumstances.

    I believe that basically everyone has something to offer. Oh there are a few that would always choose not to offer anything of value but that is a choice and not because they really have no skills at all.

    Some people intend on growing their own food but that is easier said than done. Without proper soil, light, and growing conditions, you are going to waste considerable time and effort and not have enough to make it.

    Wouldn’t it be better to learn how to cultivate a few herbs in pots and become proficient at using herbs for health and first aid?  You will still learn how to work the soil a bit, so when and if the time comes, you can lend a helping hand to others that do have proper growing conditions.

    That is just one example and I am certain you can think of others.

    12 Skills That Belong in Your Survival Bucket List

    1.  Put together a first class first aid kit, learn first aid, and a good bedside manner

    You can have the best gear in the world and three years of stored food but if you are hurt or sick, you will may not live long enough to see you way through.  Put together a first class first aid kit and know how to use it.  Get a good book on survival medicine (like this one) and turn to it for advice as various ailments come up in day to day life.  Learn how to heal with herbs and essential oils and put that knowledge into practice.

    Additional Reading:  How to Create an Emergency Ammo Can First Aid Kit

    There are a lot of things wrong with the medical system in the United States but one thing that can be assured is that hospitals and Urgent Care Centers have to offer you a certain level of care even if you can’t pay right then. During a long emergency or SHTF scenario, running to the doctor or getting major modern medical care will be hard or impossible. There is also the cruel reality that even if some is available, it will go to those that are considered the most important or even more likely, those with enough money to be able to make people jump when they want to.

    These facts mean that you those that can offer some medical care to others during a long emergency will be considered some of the most valuable people in the community.

    A kind bedside manner is another skill that will make you stand out as a medical worker during SHTF. A lot of people will feel scared and hopeless if things are bad and the availability of painkillers may be low or nonexistent which will make some things harder to get through for everyone involved.

    2.  Learn to forage, fish, or hunt (or all three)

    Knowing how to make good use of food that is out there for the picking is a skill that doesn’t cost much more than some time and a guidebook of edibles in your area. There are classes and groups in many areas. Look for classes at community colleges, hiking and nature groups, and community centers. It may be easier for some to gain confidence by learning in a group or class. There are a lot of stories out there about eating the wrong thing that leads to irrational fears of all the food out there if you just start looking around.

    Being able to supplement any diet with some extra protein is very helpful. Hunting and fishing is not as easy as it may look on Outdoor Life Channel and in some areas it is even more challenging because the game and fish are just not that plentiful near any habitations. I know that when we trout fish we hike in for an hour and a half to get a good hole because any closer and people have fished it out. You literally have to go the extra mile.

    While shooting is usually the preferred means of hunting, some are skilled enough with bows to make a good go of it. Trapping is another option. You could make traps or buy some to put back for SHTF. My biggest issue with traps is that there is a chance you will trap something that you don’t want to or the fact that some people forget to check their traps and that leads to pain and suffering.

    James did an article on the pros and cons of trapping that goes into more detail.

    Additional Reading:  Should You Eat Roadkill? 8 Important Rules to Consider First

    3.  Learn multiple ways to start a fire and keep it going

    A lot of preparedness sites promote learning how to start a fire.  Indeed, fire making is important, but so is keeping the fire going.  Practice keeping your fire going for hours at a time and in all sorts of weather conditions.  Trust me, starting the fire is often the easiest part.

    Additional Reading:  The Easy Way to Start a Wood Fire

    4.  Locate local sources of water and learn to filter and purify that water

    You may have to think outside the box when it comes to sourcing water, especially in the desert.  There are no simple answers so get creative.  Remember that canned goods are a source of water so in some areas, you may be better off storing canned goods than bulk foods.  Whatever the source, make sure you know how to purify the water so it is safe to drink.

    Additional Reading:  Emergency Water for Preppers Part 2: Purification

    5.  Put together a sewing kit and become proficient at sewing and mending by hand

    For one reason or another, this skill is often missing from lists of survival skills.  You will be surprised at how well a hand-mended garment will hold, even when performing arduous physical labor.  Keep in mind that you are going to need needles large and small, thread in various weights, and scissors.  Need some practice?  Cut up a shirt or a pair of pants that are headed for the rag bag and mend them.  Then, the next time you are cleaning house or working in the yard, wear them.  How did you do?

    Additional Reading:  5 Uncommon Skills That Will Be Useful After the SHTF

    6.  Train yourself in self defense using your weapon of choice

    Tactical and strategic defense is different in town and country. Some of the principles are the same but there are some stark differences as well. Another skill is to learn to adapt lessons learned in the military to civilian situations. My article “Rules Of Engagement 101” goes into this in more detail on these concepts. People that are in charge of tactics and defense need to be good enough with people to take on a more leadership role while exercising some level of patience with beginners.

    Choose a weapon that are you comfortable with and learn how to use it.  For some that will be a firearm, and for others it will be knives, batons, tasers, or martial arts.  Whatever you choose, become comfortable with your choice of weapon and master how to use it.

    Additional Reading: 13 Steps to Prepare for Civil Unrest

    7.  Develop a survival mindset

    If there is one thing that I preach (although I hate that word), it is developing your survival mindset in such a manner that prepping becomes a way a life without overcoming your life.  Being aware of your surroundings is a big part of your survival mindset as is learning coping mechanisms for dealing with disasters, sickness, and pretty much anything else that does not go right in your life or the world.  I still maintain that having the proper frame of mind and the will to live will trump everything else when the SHTF.

    Additional Reading:  12 Tips for Coping When Life Gets the Best of You

    8.  Learn to shelter in place

    Wilderness survival will become a last ditch effort for many, if not most of us.  That is why it is important to learn how to hunker down and wait out the disruptive event in the shelter of your own home.  Learn how to board up windows, seal your home from a pandemic, and create a livable environment that will be at least modestly comfortable when conditions on the outside are austere, or worse.

    Additional Reading:  Preparing to Hunker Down in Place

    9.  Learn to cook from scratch using simple ingredients and how to preserve food

    There was a time when most meals were prepared at home. Eating out at a restaurant was something many people only did if they were traveling or on a weekend. It was definitely not common for people to eat out every day.

    Younger people often do not know how to cook anything beyond a quick box of something that you boil and add a packet or two of stuff to and mix.

    Scratch cooking is a fun and delicious skill to learn if one stops always looking at meals as drudgery at the end of a long day. There are plenty of meals during good times that are nutritious and can be fixed in less than an hour total prep and cooking time. There are tons of books dedicated to 20-30 minute meals that are healthy.

    There will be a lot of foods that require extensive preparation. Have you ever cooked beans without a pressure cooker? It takes a long time even if you soak them some.

    If you want to get in depth on good dishes you can make with commonly stashed prepper foods, you should look at my article “Best Prepper Recipe Ideas: What To Do with Stockpiled Foods”

    Anyone can cook if they want to do so. I learned on old cookbooks I found laying around. You may find that learning to cook more variety saves you money too because you eat out less. Losing weight is also easier when you have control over the ingredients and method of cooking.

    Additional Reading:  Simple Comforts: How and Why You Should Make Your Own Bread

    A long time ago almost all the food people consumed over the winter was food they had put back during the Spring and Summer. Food preservation will always be a valuable skill to know. Don’t limit yourself to a single method or two either. Fermentation, canning, pickling, drying, smoking, and curing should all be learned. Check out these articles to get started on your career in food preservation during a long emergency.

    Be an all around handy person. Know how to fix things using some of the more common hand and battery powered tools available

    I sometimes think about what a hassle it would be to have our place if Matt didn’t seem to know how to fix as much as he does. You may want to consider building up a decent tool kit now because as those in the handy person business know, having the right tools will often get you the job.

    10.  Put together a robust tool kit and learn to fix things with common tools

    Everyone needs to become a MacGyver wanna be.  Master carpentry or plumbing or become a mechanic.  Use odd bits of this and that to fix things that are broken to make them useable again.  But first, gather around your tools and make sure they are set aside in one place so that you can get to them when you need them.

    Additional Reading:  14 Essentials to Help You Fix and Clean Almost Anything

    11.  Build a library of books that you can turn to as a reference when the grid is down

    Regardless of the size of your digital library, also build a modestly sized library of print books.  My choice includes books on survival medicine, foraging in the wild, using herbs, old-timey cooking, country living, bushcraft and more.

    Additional Reading:  Every Survival Community Needs a Town Library

    12.  Think outside the box

    Finally, think outside the box.  Need to get something done and don’t know how to do it?  Barter skills with someone who does.  Seek out uncommon uses for things you already own.  Stock your survival cupboard with multi-tasking items that perform more than one function.

    The Final Word

    The ability to adapt to the new reality of SHTF is one of the most important skills and concepts because it will allow you to do a better job at everything discussed in this post.

    I have Selco to thank for pointing out this concept that sums up a lot of the survival mindset used to get through some very dire circumstances. You can know a lot of things but if you cannot get your mind to accept the new rules then you are endangering yourself and those around you. Being in denial about the terrible things going on means you cannot react fast enough or plan ahead.

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    This content was originally published here.

  • Survival Skills | Why Everyone Should Get Out There And Learn Bushcraft

    Survival Skills | Why Everyone Should Get Out There And Learn Bushcraft

    We headed to the ‘Garden of England’ to learn a whole new set of survival skills

    Bushcraft, for some it’s about learning and deepening their understanding of the natural world, connecting with ancestral practices and ensuring that these traditional methods are maintained. For others, it’s about wilderness survival and how to look after yourself in a tricky situation – either way it’s a great way to enjoy the .

    But why in the modern world of underfloor heating and smashed avocado on toast do we need to learn, practice and maintain the skills required to live in remote locations? We went to Jack Raven Bushcraft in Kent – one of the UK’s leading bushcraft centres – to find out.

    learning-bushcraft

    Pictured: Tales around the campfire. Photo: Giles Dean

    Escape City Life

    By 2050 two thirds of the global population will call the concrete jungle home, an increase from the current fifty-five percent. City life is great in bursts, but after a couple of days of it you can start hearing the outdoors calling you to escape can’t you?

    We all know that city living isn’t natural. Nor is it good for us. Terrible air quality, overcrowding on public transport, and a schedule that gives you one night a week to ‘do you’ are just a few of the tribulations city dwellers go through. Get outside, get some oxygen rich air into your lungs and recharge yourself.

    learning-bushcraft

    Pictured: Knife sharpening lesson. Photo: Giles Dean

    Learn New Skills

    Becoming a student of bushcraft opens up a whole new world of skills to learn – from building fires and sharpening knives to foraging for wild food and identifying trees and plants – the list is endless.

    It’s good for your own development to keep learning new skills and to place yourself outside your comfort zone from time to time. Whether or not you will one day find yourself in a real-life survival situation, the skills you learn in bushcraft will go deeper than the sole act of performing the task at hand.

    “Becoming a student of bushcraft opens up a whole new world of skills to learn”

    For example, learning how to carve not only allows you to create beautiful handmade utensils such as spoons and spatulas – it more importantly teaches you how to slow down. Modern life is fast paced, fuelled by double espressos as you race from one task to the next rarely allowing yourself to concentrate on what is right in front of you.

    Carving is the perfect antidote to this. Time will melt away as you lose yourself in a meditative state, working away at the wood. Before you know it, you will be holding something that is unique and personal to you and that, with a bit of care, will last a long time. Whether you’ll win any design awards for it is, of course, another matter entirely.

    learning-bushcraft

    Pictured: Tarp and hammock set up. Photo: Giles Dean

    Reconnecting With Nature

    Getting outside and living in the woods for a couple of days allows you to rewild yourself and to connect with the natural world. After one night under canvas, you will already start to notice the difference in yourself. You will have forgotten about all the things you thought you couldn’t live without, and your internal dialogue will be that much quieter.

    Bushcraft has conservation and sustainability right at the centre of its philosophy and you will be taught how to ‘leave no trace’, giving you the skills to move through the environment with no evidence of you being there.

    Recently the human race has marched through life with little regard for the natural world; over consuming natural resources and passing on the responsibility of cleaning up for the next generation. Bushcraft gives you the skills to look after the environment, to get up close and personal with nature, and to see what outdoor people are doing to protect and nurture our green spaces. 

    learning-bushcraft

    Pictured: Gary explaining fire building. Photo: Giles Dean

    Gary – Founder of Jack Raven Bushcraft

    “Bushcraft is as relevant today as it’s ever been, for at least two reasons.  Firstly, bushcraft is ultimately an exploration of the natural world. For our hunter gatherer ancestors the forest was the supermarket, DIY shop, and chemist all in one – it was simply a case of knowing what to look for, where to look for it and when.

    “So a large part of what we do is teaching people about the various trees, plants and animals that we share our countryside with.  And through that learning and understanding comes an appreciation, and with that appreciation a desire to protect, preserve and enhance the fantastic treasures that nature has provided us.

    “For our hunter gatherer ancestors the forest was the supermarket, DIY shop, and chemist”

    “On a more individual level there is a wealth of research that strongly suggests that exposure to nature is good for us, both physically and mentally.  Our species has been around for 200,000 years and for most of that time we were hunter gatherers, inexorably connected to the land.

    “It’s only in the last few centuries that we’ve moved away from that, but you can’t overcome all of that hard wiring, we’re quite literally meant to be outside in the forests.  Bushcraft is a means to stay true to our core being; a few days in the woods is like detoxing your soul and will leave you feeling energised and refreshed in your everyday life.”

    learning-bushcraft

    Pictured: Making sparks with steel and flint. Photo via JackRavenBushcraft

    To find out more about attending a bushcraft course, head to the Jack Raven Bushcraft website. 

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    The post Survival Skills | Why Everyone Should Get Out There And Learn Bushcraft appeared first on Mpora.

    This content was originally published here.

  • Exxon Mobil seeks bids for Norwegian offshore assets

    Exxon Mobil seeks bids for Norwegian offshore assets

    OSLO — Exxon Mobil is considering selling all of the stakes it holds in oil and gas fields off the Norwegian coast, a spokeswoman said.

    Two years ago the U.S. major – the world’s largest oil company – sold its operated assets in the area. But it has retained stakes in more than 20 other fields, including Equinor-operated Snorre and Shell-operated Ormen Lange.

    “Following interest expressed by several parties, Exxon Mobil has decided to open a data room to test the market interest for the upstream portfolio in Norway,” Anne Fougner said, adding that no decision to sell had yet been made.

    A number of private-equity backed firms, including Okea, and independent oil firms Aker BP and DNO, have this year said they were looking to buy more assets on the Norwegian continental shelf.

    Fougner’s remarks confirmed a report in local newspaper Dagens Naeringsliv. She declined to comment on the value of the assets, which the business daily quoted an unnamed industry expert as saying could be worth $3-4 billion.

    In 2017, Exxon Mobil’s net production from fields off Norway was around 170,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, according to its website.

    Erik Haugane, Okea’s chief executive, told Reuters this week he expected all oil majors except Norway’s Equinor to exit the Norwegian continental shelf in a decade.

    Another Norwegian oil firm, Det norske – controlled by billionaire Kjell Inge Roekke – bought BP’s Norwegian assets in 2016, with BP getting a 30% stake in the new company, Aker BP.

    U.S. major Chevron transferred its last stake in a Norwegian offshore license last year, while ConocoPhillips still operates Ekofisk, the first major oil discovery off Norway.

    *Nerijus Adomaitis; editing: John Stonestreet – Reuters

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    This content was originally published here.

  • RBNZ Preview – Maintaining Cautious Tone to Pave Way for Further Cuts | Action Forex

    RBNZ Preview – Maintaining Cautious Tone to Pave Way for Further Cuts | Action Forex

    After lowering the policy rate by -25 bps to 1.5% in May, RBNZ would likely remain on hold this month. Domestic economic developments came in largely consistent with policymakers’ projections. Yet, global economic outlook remains uncertain and major central banks have recently shifted their stance on the dovish side. As such, we expect RBNZ to maintain a cautious tone in June. Softness in leading indicators signal risks to growth are skewed to the downside, paving the way for further rate cuts later this year.

    Mixed Domestic Economic Developments

    GDP expanded +0.6% q/q in 1Q19, beating RBNZ expectations of +0.4%. The details were mixed. Household consumption growth eased to +0.5% q/q, from +1% in the prior quarter. Investment growth, however, accelerated. Residential investment expanded +2.7% y/y, following a +1.9% growth in 4Q18, while other fixed asset investment growth also accelerated to +1.9% q/q. from +1.4% in 4Q19. Moreover, net exports expanded +0.6% q/q n 1Q19, up from +0.4% in the previous quarter. Sector-wise, the good-producing sector gained a solid +2% q/q. However, growth in services activities was soft at +0.2% q/q and mixed across the industries, while the primary sector saw contraction of -0.7%.q/q.

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    Leading indicators have signaled downside risks to domestic growth. ANZ Roy Morgan’s consumer index showed decline in May, while the manufacturing PMI (by BusinessNZ) fell to 50.2 in May, down -2.5 points from April and the lowest since December 2012. For the latter, the accompanying report indicates that it is “a warning signal for near term growth via its mix of falling production, near flat new orders, and rising inventory”.

    Global Uncertainty and Dovish Central Banks

    Globally, we do not expect immediate resolution on US-China trade war after the G20 meeting. At best, both sides would agree to continue negotiations. That is uncertainty of the trade war remains. Meanwhile, major central banks have shifted to the dovish side, signaling that future monetary policy stance is skewed to the easing side. RBA, after cutting the cash rate in June, revealed in the minutes that “more likely than not that a further easing in monetary policy would be appropriate in the period ahead”. Although the Fed left the policy rate unchanged in June, removal of the reference “patient” in the forward guidance could be paving the way for future rate cuts. Moreover, the median dot plots revealed that more members are in favor of lowering interest rates later this year, while the plots have projected a rate cut in 2020.

    Although headline GDP growth beat RBNZ’s expectations, the breakdowns were mixed, at best. The forward-looking indicators, however, have signaled that risks to growth are skewed to the downside. Globally, it is unlikely that G20 summit next week would resolve the US-China trade war. Meanwhile, major central banks have either resumed accommodative monetary policy or hinted easing in the near-future. All these should lead the RBNZ to adopt a cautious tone this month, while opening the door for reducing interest rates again later this year.

    This content was originally published here.

  • Gold Price Framework – The Next Cycle Unfolds

    Gold Price Framework – The Next Cycle Unfolds

    Via GoldMoney Insights,

    Based on the findings of our gold price framework, we have long argued that we have entered a new gold cycle. However, until now, there was always the risk that strong economic growth could allow the Fed to raise rates above what the FOMC members themselves expected was possible. As markets and the Fed itself rapidly adjust to the new reality of a slowdown in economic growth, those risks have subsided, bolstering our conviction that the next gold cycle is about to unfold.

    In 2018 we published a 3-part series “Gold Price Framework Vol. 2: The Energy Side of the Equation” in which we presented our revised gold price model (part 1), took a deeper dive into the link between longer-dated energy prices and gold by doing an in-depth analysis of the energy exposure of gold mining companies (part 2), and gave an outlook for gold prices (part 3).

    For those unfamiliar with our model, we recommend reading at least part 1 to get a better understanding of our findings in this report. In a nutshell, we found that the majority of changes in gold prices can be explained by just three drivers: Central bank policy (more specifically real-interest rate expectations and QE), changes in longer-dated energy prices, and central bank net gold purchases (the least important driver). These three drivers can explain over 80% of the year-over-year changes in the gold price (see Exhibit 1).

    Based on the outlook for the main drivers of the gold prices, we reiterate our view that the risk to gold prices is clearly skewed to the upside, a position we are holding since early 2016. While our bullish view on gold remains unchanged, there is a clear change in our conviction level. For the past three years we have held the view that we are in a new up-cycle but we always maintained a somewhat cautious stance as we could see a near-term scenario where the Fed was able to continue to raise rates on the back of an acceleration in economic growth. We now think that this risk has all but vanished, with global economic growth pointing down, the FOMC members themselves cutting their future rate expectations and the market beginning to price in rate cuts rather than further rate hikes. In other words, the next cycle is about to unfold.

    current gold price cycle started at the end of 2015…

    Since we have presented our gold price framework the first time in late 2015, we have argued that we have entered a new cycle in the gold market. At the time we believed that longer-dated oil prices (5-year forward Brent) had likely set a bottom in late 2015 (at US$47/bbl, now US$60/bbl) and that real-interest rate expectations (10-year TIPS yields) were close to their cycle peak at 0.8% (now 0.3%) (see Exhibit 2). Our view was that – while there was some room to the downside – risk for gold prices were clearly skewed to the upside. While we weren’t extremely bullish near term for longer dated energy prices, the reason for our bullish view on gold was that we saw much more downside risk than upside risk for real-interest rate expectations.

    By the end of 2015, the FOMC members were predicting terminal Fed funds rates at 3.5% (see Exhibit 3). The Fed also has a PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) inflation target of 2%, which, in our view translates into CPI (Consumer Price Inflation) of around 2.5-3% that is embedded in TIPS yields. Thus, we expected TIPS yields not rise much above 1% even if the Fed was able to raise rates as many times as it signaled at the time.

    Importantly, with terminal rates at just 3.5%, any economic slowdown or even a recession would require the Fed to sharply slash rates, maybe to even negative territory, which in turn would bring down real-interest rate expectations. Hence, we argued that the next larger move in gold prices would likely be up due to declining real-interest rate expectations.

    However, we also acknowledged that there was significant uncertainty about the path of real-interest rate expectations for the next few years. The Fed’s famous dot plot simply shows what the FOMC members expect for future nominal rates, not their stated target. A sharp pick-up in economic activity could allow the Fed to raise rates further. In our view, a “normal” 10-year treasury yield of 5-6% would have had quite a strong negative impact on gold prices. Assuming that the Fed would stick to its inflation target of 2%, real-interest expectations would most likely be around 2-2.5%[2]. All else equal, our model would predict gold prices to drop below US$1,000/ozt in such an environment.

    In the aftermath of 2016 US presidential elections, that was exactly what the market started to price in. The market hoped that deregulation would unleash economic growth that would offset the negative impact of the Fed unwinding its balance sheet. And for a while, it looked like the economic environment in the U.S. did indeed gain steam and surprised both the market and the Fed. In turn, the FOMC members started to raise their expectations for terminal rates from just 2.75% back to 3%.

    While this pushed 10-year inflation expectations from 1.2% in early 2016 to 2.2% in 2018, nominal rates rose even more quickly as the Fed was finally able to raise rates multiple times a year, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.2% in late 2018. The result was that real-interest rate expectations rebounded one more time to 1.2% (see Exhibit 4)

    Gold has predictably struggled a little bit in this environment, but the dreaded gold bear market scenario never materialized.  The price of gold was close to US$1,300/ozt before election day and it was down less than US$100/ozt by the time we saw peak rates late last year, despite also being in a bearish energy environment.

    Part of the reason for this resilience is that, while the Fed tightened monetary conditions by raising rates and unwinding its balance sheets, central banks globally continued to ease, and total central bank assets are right now at an all-time high. This also explains why gold prices in some other currencies are also at all-time highs. On net, the up cycle that started in 2015 remains intact, and it just got confirmed by the Fed. 

    …and it just got confirmed by the chairman of the FED

    The optimism about the pick-up in U.S. economic growth proved to be short lived, and over the past couple months, the FOMC members gradually lowered their expectations to 2.5% (see Exhibit 5) and, more importantly, slashed their expectations for the Fed funds rate by the end of 2019 to just 2.375%, implying zero hikes.

    The market is even more bearish, Fed fund futures are now pricing in near zero probability for a hike. The weighted average forecast for Fed funds rate at the end of 2019 is now 1.7%, implying not one, but two rate cuts. In recent years, the market has always discounted the Fed’s optimism on its ability to hike rates. But what we have witnessed over the past months reflects a complete deterioration in confidence about the FEDs ability to hike rates any further. 

    We argue however that, taking historical Fed policy into account, the market seems yet to be much too optimistic. As we have highlighted before, over the past 30 years, the Fed slashed rates by 5.5% on average when the US entered a recession. This would imply steeply negative 10-year treasury rates (see Exhibit 7).

    And that doesn’t even take the high likelihood into account that the Fed will revert to what was once referred to as unconventional monetary policy: Quantitative Easing (QE). In our view, the most important development in regards to monetary policy was not the FOMC members’ change of heart in terms of forward outlook (the market anticipated that for some time now), but a remark by Fed chairman Powell during a conference on June 4, 2019. Powell sent a powerful message to the market by preparing it for what most people in the gold market have expected all along: that quantitative easing should no longer be considered unconventional but in the future should be a standard tool in the Fed’s arsenal. Powell said:

    “There will be a next time,”…[Interest rates so close to zero] “has become the preeminent monetary policy challenge of our time. Perhaps it is time to retire the term ‘unconventional’ when referring to tools that were used in the crisis. We know that tools like these are likely to be needed in some form in the future.”

    And not to be outdone by the Fed, ECB President Mario Draghi stunned markets two week later when speaking at the ECB Forum in Portugal by saying:

    “In the absence of improvement, such that the sustained return of inflation to our aim is threatened, additional stimulus will be required”

    Given that the ECBs target rate has remained at zero, this could only mean more quantitative easing, or a derivate thereof. In other words, when the next recession comes, expect a lot more QE, not just from the Fed, but from virtually every major central bank.

    And it’s just the logical conclusion. If the Fed cannot raise rates over 2.5% before the next recession, slashing rates by 5.5% means the new target rate would have to be -3%. That is a level of NIRP no other central bank has come even close to. The Swiss national bank has been keeping its target rate at -0.75% for the past years, but it argues it is doing this to keep the Swiss Franc from appreciating too much as the surrounding economies of Europe struggle, rather than trying to stimulate the Swiss economy. Hence, it seems inevitable that QE will be redeployed when the next recession arrives, and rates will cut to at least zero.

    While the timing of all this is unclear, the direction is not. Arguably the U.S. economy has so far shown remarkable resilience to rising interest rates, an inverted yield curve, higher energy prices (until very recently) and an escalating trade war between China and the U.S., and potentially other countries[3]. And should the U.S. and China resolve their trade dispute, we could expect a short term rebound in confidence and economic activity. But rates have reached a threshold where they start to have a meaningful, and in our view irreversible effect on the economy. Real estate markets in major cities, which for 10 years knew only one direction, have already started to struggle. Recent employment numbers have also been less than encouraging. And higher U.S. rates have taken a toll on the rest of the world as well. European PMI numbers, for example, have been weak for months. And China has its own issues, likely exacerbated by the ongoing trade war.

    Hence in our view, it’s a question of when – rather than if – the U.S. enters the next recession. In a few weeks, this will become officially the longest period of economic expansion in U.S. history, exceeding the 120 straight months of economic expansion from 1991 until 2001. Given the strong headwinds for economic growth, we have little hope that this expansion has a lot more lifetime. And it seems that the Fed is now agreeing. While the Fed has left its target rate unchanged in the June meeting, both the language in the Feds’ statement as well as the rate expectations of the individual FOMC members has changed significantly. At their March meeting, the median expectation of the FOMC members for end of 2019 and end of 2020 rates was 2.375% and 2.625%. Three months later the end of 2020 expectations have dropped to just 2.125% and while the end of 2019 median expectations remained the same, 8 members now expect lower rates from previously none. The market is taking this as an indication that it is imminent that Fed will reverse course and start cutting rates.

    In our view this means that we are now solidly in the next cycle. The risk of sharply higher rates – meaning 5-6% – are firmly off the table. The next big move in real-interest rate expectations thus will be down. The table below shows the model output for different scenarios (see Exhibit 10).

    It is important to highlight that QE has a positive effect on gold that goes beyond QE’s impact on real-interest rate expectations. Hence more QE will not just push gold higher through lower real-interest rate expectations but is a positive driver on its own. QE’s impact on gold is much harder to estimate in a multiple regression analysis though. Every round of QE had a different impact, and so did the tapering and the subsequent unwind. Hence in the table we show where the model predicts gold prices to go under different scenarios of real-interest rate expectations and longer-dated energy prices. More QE implies that there is more upside to these targets.

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    This content was originally published here.

  • POINTS TO PONDER

    POINTS TO PONDER

    Here is something to think about. There are many in the world who are more than willing to offer their opinion on how you should deal with certain situations. It is possible to consider their proposals but you are not forced to accept them. You must make up your own mind. Here are some for you to consider:

    A man fell into a pit and couldn’t get himself out.

    A subjective person came along and said, “I feel for you down there.”

    An objective person walked by and said, “It’s logical that someone would fall down there.”

    A Pharisee said, “Only bad people fall into pits.”

    A mathematician calculated how deep the pit was.

    A news reporter wanted the exclusive story on the pit.

    A proud person would say, “Try to be more like me and you won’t end up in such a pit.”

    A self-pitying person said, “You haven’t seen anything until you’ve seen my pit.”

    A fire-and-brimstone preacher said, “You deserve your pit.”

    A Christian Scientist observed, “The pit is just in your mind.”

    A psychologist noted, “Your mother and father are to blame for your being in that pit.”

    A self-esteem therapist said, “Believe in yourself and you can get out of that pit.”

    A hateful person would say, “It’s the survival of the fittest, buddy. So you know what that makes you!”

    An optimist said, “Things could be worse.”

    An egotistical person would say, “I’ve got enough problems of my own to handle, I don’t need yours.”

    A pessimist claimed, “Things will get worse.”

    Jesus, seeing the man, took him by the hand and lifted him out of the pit

    Now ask yourself the question, if someone were to ask your opinion on how to get out of a tight or difficult situation with the least amount of loss or hurt, which on of these categories would they place you in?

    This content was originally published here.